Travel Restrictions and Stranded Migrants Across the Region

Epidemiologic update

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit a total of 53 African countries, among which 23 are in West and Central Africa. While the virus was slow to reach the continent compared to other parts of the world, infection has grown exponentially in recent weeks and continues to spread.

A study from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine shows that Africa could see up to 450,000 people test positive for the highly infectious Coronavirus (Covid-19) by the second week of May, putting the continent’s fragile health systems under severe test.
 

Regional Trends : Focus on The Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-19 in West and Central Africa

“COVID-19 has the potential not only to cause thousands of deaths, but to also unleash economic

and social devastation.” - Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa.

Nearly 20 million jobs, both in the formal and informal sectors, are estimated to be threatened on the continent if the situation continues. Tourism, air transport, and the oil sector are already visibly impacted.

Africa’s imports are hit by the COVID-19. The drop-in imports and the shortages of basic consumer goods imported from China have increased inflation in countries in the region. Many traders will be seriously affected by the crisis as they earn their livelihood trading Chinese products such as textiles, electronics, and householders’ goods. Exports and imports of African countries are projected to drop by at least 35% from the level reached in 2019 and loss in value is estimated at around 270 billion US dollars.

The largest disruption to trade will be for commodity-sensitive economies, with Cameroon, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, and the Republic of the Congo among the most affected. UNECA estimates the losses linked to the collapse of the prices of the barrel at 65 billion US dollars, of which up to 19 billion US dollars losses are expected in Nigeria.

With limited economic activity in many advanced and emerging market countries, remittances to Africa could experience significant declines. Remittances as a share of GDP exceeded 5 percent in 13 African countries, reaching more than 12 percent in The Gambia and Liberia in 2019.

On peace and security, Covid19 could have a side effect - possible social unrest associated with containment of Coronavirus. The spread of the pandemic in conflict-affected countries will make it difficult for security forces, health providers and international organizations to provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations.

Socio-economic impact on herders: COVID-19 and Transhumance

During the dry season (January-May), cattle graze in coastal countries, therefore mobility is not currently a pressing concern. With the wet season, starting in May, it will become critical to measure the impact of border closures on transhumance such has the closure of markets is already dramatic for herders who: i) cannot access grain supplies for their cattle; and  ii) cannot sell their goods (i.e. milk and meat).

Severe income losses can have a direct impact on food and nutrition security in the region. Additionally, because of their nomadic nature, herders are hard-to-reach people with no or limited access to the information related to COVID-19 and therefore sensitization is challenging.